Hype Cycle va Amara qonuni
Qonunlar 0 06.08.2023 192

Hype Cycle va Amara Qonuni Wikipedia

Biz texnologiyaning qisqa muddatda ta'sirini ortiqcha baholaymiz va uzoq muddatda ta'sirini kam baholaymiz.

(Roy Amara)

Hype Cycle - bu Gartner tomonidan ishlab chiqarilgan vaqt davomida texnologiyaning hayajonlanishi va rivojlanishining vizual tasviri. Bu eng yaxshi ingl.

(Image Reference: By Jeremykemp at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10547051)

Muxtasar qilib aytganda, bu tsikl odatda yangi texnologiya va uning potentsial ta'siri atrofida hayajon portlashi borligini ko'rsatadi. Jamoalar tez-tez ushbu texnologiyalarga tezda kirishadi va ba'zida natijalardan hafsalasi pir bo'ladi. Buning sababi, texnologiya hali yetarlicha etuk emasligi yoki haqiqiy ilovalar hali to'liq amalga oshirilmaganligi bo'lishi mumkin. Muayyan vaqtdan so'ng texnologiyaning imkoniyatlari ortadi va undan foydalanishning amaliy imkoniyatlari ortadi va jamoalar nihoyat samarali bo'lishi mumkin. Roy Amaraning iqtiboslari buni eng qisqacha ifodalaydi - "Biz texnologiyaning qisqa muddatli ta'sirini ortiqcha baholaymiz va uzoq muddatda kam baholaymiz".

The Hype Cycle & Amara's Law
Qonunlar 0 06.08.2023 192

The Hype Cycle on Wikipedia

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.

(Roy Amara)

The Hype Cycle is a visual representation of the excitement and development of technology over time, originally produced by Gartner. It is best shown with a visual:

(Image Reference: By Jeremykemp at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10547051)

In short, this cycle suggests that there is typically a burst of excitement around new technology and its potential impact. Teams often jump into these technologies quickly, and sometimes find themselves disappointed with the results. This might be because the technology is not yet mature enough, or real-world applications are not yet fully realised. After a certain amount of time, the capabilities of the technology increase and practical opportunities to use it increase, and teams can finally become productive. Roy Amara's quote sums this up most succinctly - "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate in the long run".